Mortgage Rates Tick Up 2 bps While Ginnie Repurchases Show Continued Decline

Mortgage rates posted modest increases this week, with the 30-year fixed rate climbing 2 basis points to 6.49% according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, up from the prior week's 6.47%. The 15-year fixed rate similarly advanced 3 basis points to 5.84% from 5.81%. These increases occurred against a backdrop of Treasury yields maintaining elevated levels, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.41% and the 2-year at 4.11%, preserving a 30 basis point yield curve spread. The primary mortgage spread widened to 208 basis points over the 10-year Treasury.

Ginnie Mae repurchase data for February 2026 revealed continued moderation in buyback activity, with total repurchases declining 6.7% month-over-month to 9,284 loans. The repurchase rate fell 146 basis points to 8.87%, marking the second consecutive monthly decline from January's elevated 10.33% level. FHA loans comprised 89.1% of total repurchases at 8,275 loans, while VA and USDA repurchases totaled 799 and 208 loans respectively. The trailing six-month trend shows repurchase rates have fluctuated between 3.7% and 10.33%, suggesting ongoing variability in quality control challenges across the government channel.

Regulatory enforcement remained a key focus with the OCC's March 19, 2026 consent order against a top-20 bank servicer highlighting persistent operational deficiencies. The action cited loss mitigation processing failures, escrow administration deficiencies, and Regulation X violations, requiring the institution to submit a remediation plan within 60 days and engage an independent compliance consultant. Notably, the OCC reserved the right to assess civil money penalties, indicating potential for escalated enforcement if remediation efforts prove insufficient.

Broader market indicators reflected continued economic uncertainty, with consumer sentiment plunging to 49.8 according to the University of Michigan survey, while initial jobless claims held steady at 215,000. The combination of elevated rates, regulatory scrutiny, and deteriorating consumer confidence suggests QC teams should prepare for potential increases in early payment defaults and quality issues in originations from this period.

Freddie Mac repurchase activity remained minimal with only one loan repurchased in December 2025, while Fannie Mae data from September 2025 showed 806 total repurchases valued at $250.6 million. The dramatic divergence in GSE repurchase patterns underscores the importance of understanding entity-specific quality expectations and enforcement patterns in current market conditions.